Ampercast publishes probabilistic day-ahead price forecasts every morning at 07:00 CET — quarter-hourly curves (the auction's native resolution), hourly aggregates, confidence bands, and the probability of every negative-price period. Europe logged 4,838 zero-or-negative price periods in 2024 — and 2025 set another record. The operators who saw them coming didn't pay to produce.
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Industry analyses put roughly a fifth of German solar generation in negative-price periods in 2024 — and new plants earn no feed-in support during them. Producing into a negative period means paying to work.
Ampercast flags every probable negative period the morning before, so you can curtail, store, or sell the flexibility instead.
Industrial buyers on spot-indexed contracts and small retailers live with prices that swing from −38 to +158 €/MWh within one day — and plan production with yesterday's news.
A price curve at 07:00 turns the swing into a schedule: shift flexible load into the valley, hedge the peak.
Enterprise price-forecast terminals are built — and priced — for utility trading floors. Below them: developer APIs, DIY scripts and hobby tools. The teams in between get nothing.
Ampercast is the decision layer in between: free for a home battery, €149 to €349 for a professional desk — self-serve, no sales calls.
No consultants, no onboarding project. Connect your zone, pick your channels, and tomorrow's curve is in your inbox before your first coffee.
You lose money in hours you never saw coming. Direct-marketed PV and merchant batteries live and die by the midday valley.
Spot-indexed contracts reward whoever can shift load into the cheap hours — and punish everyone else.
Solar on the roof, battery in the cellar, EV in the garage, Tibber-style tariff on the meter. Charge in the valley, not the peak.
Self-serve, monthly, cancel anytime. Every paid plan includes the full forecast archive and the public accuracy ledger.
Every forecasting vendor claims accuracy. We put ours on a public ledger instead — and it never gets edited.
"41% lower error than the naive benchmark (rMAE 0.59), 91% precision on negative-price alerts (P≥0.5), the benchmark beaten in 20 of 20 backtest months — and a live ledger growing daily."
Day-ahead prices are set in the coupled European auction (SDAC — via EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and, in Spain, OMIE). It closes at 12:00 CET; results are public around 12:45 CET. Ampercast's forecast is out at 07:00 CET — five hours earlier, while bids, battery schedules and load plans can still change.
A prediction of the wholesale prices the auction will set for tomorrow — in quarter-hourly periods, the auction's native resolution since October 2025, plus hourly aggregates — produced from grid load, renewables and weather data before the auction runs. Ampercast adds confidence bands and a negative-price probability per period.
When solar and wind exceed demand and inflexible plants can't ramp down, the auction clears below zero — producers pay to feed in. Europe logged 4,838 zero-or-negative price periods in 2024 (per Montel Analytics), about double 2023 — and 2025 set another record. Bad news if you produce blind; the year's cheapest energy if you can shift load or charge storage.
Judged daily, in public. The engine's 19-month rolling backtest on real auction results: 41% lower error than the standard naive benchmark (rMAE 0.59), 91% precision on negative-price calls, and the benchmark beaten in all 20 backtest months — full monthly table on the public scoreboard, where every live forecast is scored the same way.
We start with Germany-Luxembourg (DE-LU), the Netherlands and Spain, and expand across ENTSO-E bidding zones. Desk includes every zone we publish; tell us which one you need next.
Grid load, generation and price data from the ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (open data, CC-BY 4.0) plus open numerical weather models. Forecasts are our own derived work — attribution included, methodology summarised openly.
No. Ampercast is an information service: we never trade or place bids, and forecasts are decision support, not investment advice. It is built for asset managers, industrial buyers, retailers and households on dynamic tariffs alike.
No. Early access is free, with no payment details collected. At launch you choose a plan — or stay on the free scoreboard tier. Nothing is charged automatically, and the first 20 founding teams keep Pro at €99/month for life.
Get the morning forecast for your zone — free during early access, founding pricing for the first 20 teams.
We only use your email to send the forecast. Unsubscribe anytime. Privacy